As the credibility of Nigeria's elections lay in tatters this week, a number of SA companies doing business there said the political fallout was unlikely to affect their operations.
Monday's announcement that Umaru Yar'Adua, the candidate of departing president Olusegun Obasanjo's party, had won in a landslide was overshadowed by mounting international criticism of ballot mayhem, bureaucratic chaos and fraud.
By Tuesday, oil prices had spiked amid concerns from traders that the political fallout could disrupt supplies from the world's sixth-biggest oil exporter.
The EU, the Commonwealth Observer Mission and the Economic Community of West African States refused to certify the elections as "free and fair". Opposition candidates have called for a rerun.
The poll was especially significant as it marked the first peaceful civilian-to-civilian handover since Nigeria's independence in 1960. But amid reports of more than 200 deaths and allegations of rigging and incompetence, observers say the poll fell below even the standards of Nigerian elections in 2003 and in 1999.
WHAT IT MEANS
 SA companies not affected by turmoil
Economic growth has not benefited most Nigerians
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Though this week's shaky electoral process has no doubt rattled a number of international investors with interests in Nigeria's burgeoning economy, few were prepared to acknowledge this publicly.
In fact, a number of SA companies with significant investments in Nigeria seemed surprisingly calm this week, saying they were confident their interests would be unaffected.
Cellphone operator MTN, whose largest investment outside SA is in Nigeria, says "any potential political instability and its possible impact on operations carries an inherent risk".
"We do not believe the current situation in Nigeria will have a negative impact on MTN's business there," says MTN spokesman Pearl Majola.
"However, we are monitoring the situation and we are in constant liaison with our management team and the relevant authorities in Nigeria."
Standard Bank, which has a small Nigerian banking operation and has reached "an agreement in principle" to buy a controlling stake in IBTC Chartered Bank, has taken a similar view.
Speaking from Nigeria, the bank's Africa MD, Greg Brackenridge, says its assessment of Nigeria's business climate is based on two points: policy continuity and whether the political situation can give rise to economic instability.
"Frankly, we feel the risk to the economy is small and I'm reasonably confident that a political accommodation will be found," says Brackenridge.
Adding that he is "not qualified" to comment on the credibility of the elections or the political process, Brackenridge says some investors will be concerned about the extent to which the international community will remain engaged with Nigeria.
" But I believe this won't change much after the elections."
Petrochemical giant Sasol is exposed to Nigeria's energy sector through its gas-to-liquid fuel plant in Escravos, a joint venture with US group Chevron.
It plans to launch the plant by 2009 with a capacity of 34 000 barrels/day, which it intends to expand to 100 000 b/d. Sasol would not comment but described Escravos as "a very positive commercial opportunity".
Retailer Massmart, which has a large Game store in Lagos, which it closed for the two days of voting, says it has made up for the lost business already.
"For us it's business as usual," says Massmart's CEO designate, Grant Pattison. "Whether it is perceived or actual, the political situation in Nigeria has not affected us."
Pattison says that since doing business in Nigeria he has found that there is a "big disconnect" between what is happening on the ground and "what we read in newspapers".
It's a perception that the CEO of the SA-Nigeria Chamber of Commerce, Dianna Games, agrees with, saying the electoral turmoil is more likely to affect Nigerian companies with close links to the Obasanjo government.
SA companies already doing business in Nigeria have inspired some confidence among potential investors and Games believes that once the political temperature cools, these investors are likely to follow.
Despite being among the most difficult business environments in the world - corruption is endemic and corporate governance is still weak - Nigeria has moved in recent years to deregulate some of its key sectors, such as telecoms and banking.
Nigeria is the fastest-growing telecom market on the African continent. D emand for telephone connections gr ew from about 10 000 new lines a year from 1960 to 2000, to 1m new lines in the past three years.
With an eye on this rapidly growing sector, SA's Telkom has just acquired a 75% stake in Multi-Links, a Nigerian telecom operator, for US$280m.
The economy under Obasanjo has performed well, growing by more than 5%/year since 2003, boosted also by high oil prices. The country's external debt has been slashed from 90% of GDP in 1999 to an estimated 5% this year.
"I think that with these kinds of opportunities, people are willing to take the risks," says Games.
A UK department of trade & industry report reveals that a number of British companies are doing a roaring trade in Nigeria, the UK's second-largest African market after SA.
The World Investment Report rated Nigeria, together with Morocco, as the third-most attractive destination for foreign direct investment in 2005, after SA and Egypt.
Nigeria remains Africa's leading oil producer, with production of 3m b/d and 3% of global reserves. It is one of the top crude oil suppliers to the US.
But, while the oil & gas sector contributes about 50% of Nigeria's GDP, the riches from the oil profits have not translated into meaningful development and the majority of its people continue to live in abject poverty.
A survey last year by Afrobarometer, an independent African research institute, found that Nigerians do not generally believe that they have reaped the "dividends" of democracy. Commitment to democracy among the 140m Nigerians remains resilient, says the survey, though most people have become discouraged by the performance of their government.
Despite Obasanjo's early efforts, graft and corruption remain endemic. Nigeria is rated as one of the worst performers by Transparency International. This week's election debacle will not offer any comfort.
