in one room, is in itself a victory of sorts. A psychological hump has been overcome. Robert Mugabe, by finally agreeing to take part in negotiation, has made a small but vital concession.
Mugabe's mantra all along has been that there's nothing to negotiate about; there is no problem. According to Mugabe, Tony Blair is the real organ-grinder, the opposition simply monkeys. Why should he then talk to the monkey?
It's a crude piece of propaganda; but it worked. His African colleagues, including big brother SA, have been embarrassed into siding with him, lest they be accused of being Blair's lackeys. (One wonders what Mugabe will do without the departing Blair. Somehow "Gordon Brown" doesn't have the same ring or resonance.)
Mugabe has been quick, in the past, to quash any talk of negotiations with the opposition. Four years ago President Thabo Mbeki, after telling visiting US President George W Bush that the ruling Zanu-PF and main opposition party MDC were in talks, was humiliated when Mugabe pointedly contradicted his statement before the day was even over. And he has, on numerous occasions, given undertakings to Mbeki only to renege on them. He's a master of subterfuge.
Mugabe understands that it's difficult for a leader to retrieve authority once he has given in to those who question his or his government's legitimacy. Mikhail Gorbachev, for instance, thought he could buy a stay of execution for communism through negotiation, only to be swept aside by an anti communist tide. F W de Klerk had in mind some kind of arrangement which would lend legitimacy to National Party hegemony without losing its power. He was outmanoeuvred.
The question then is: why is Mugabe, being such a shrewd politician, talking now? Is it for real, or is he just stringing people along? And where is the pressure to negotiate coming from? The talks coincide with renewed reports of dissension within the ruling party and even plots against Mugabe. That's led others to believe that Mugabe's end is nigh. It's wishful thinking, of course. The old codger has always got the better of his enemies. If factions within Zanu-PF had the stomach to take on Mugabe, they would have done so long before the country deteriorated to a sorry state. But can a settlement stick if Mugabe is indeed leading a divided house?
Mugabe could not have been forced to negotiate by the opposition. It is weak, divided and seems even unable to organise its supporters for some measure of internal resistance. They seem to see their responsibility as primarily begging the international community to come to their aid. With little visible support in the streets it is difficult to see how the opposition hopes to extract any meaningful concessions from Mugabe. The anger of the masses is always a potent weapon to have at the negotiating table.
The negotiations are, of course, a consequence of the meeting of SADC in Tanzania a few months ago, called to resolve the Zimbabwe issue, which unfortunately turned into a paean to Mugabe. And few have given Mbeki's mediation any chance of success. Maybe it's not a bad thing that expectations are low. Maybe - just maybe - Mbeki, already contemplating his place in history, and with nothing to lose, will pull it off.
Having got Mugabe to the water's edge, Mbeki could yet force him to drink. Were that to happen, Mbeki would earn our undying gratitude, and all past transgressions would be forgotten.
e-mail: fmeditor@fm.co.za
