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The one good thing to emerge from the run-up to the ANC's watershed elective conference, now just over two weeks away, is that people want change.
After two terms of President Thabo Mbeki - three if you count his role as de facto prime minister under Nelson Mandela - there is an understandable hunger for change. This is healthy. It signals suspicion of entrenched power and respect for term limits, and bodes well for democracy and renewal.
It is unfortunate, however, that whereas the disdainful Mbeki is the victim of this desire for change, its chief beneficiary should be Jacob Zuma. So deep is the yearning for a change, it seems, that just about anyone will do. Zuma, the candidate, is largely Mbeki's creation and the president must rue the day he chose him. Perversely, Zuma has been strengthened by Mbeki's decision to drop him from cabinet after he was tainted by the bribery and corruption for which his "financial adviser" was sent to jail. Adopted by the disgruntled socialist Left, Zuma is seen by many in the party as the victim of a conspiracy.
Alas, the last stage of grief is acceptance.
That seems to be the stage SA has reached over the prospect of Zuma ascending to the presidency of the ANC. He has undeniable popular support from most provinces and the ANC Youth and Women's leagues, which makes his rise to the top post seem likely at the ANC's Polokwane conference next month. From that position, assuming he achieves the majority vote of branches on the floor, the road to the presidency of the country in 2009 seems open to him.
For those to whom Mbeki has become anathema, the humiliation of the president in the battle for the party's top post is a triumph. Yet, in the rush to depose Mbeki, what man is the ANC set to choose for itself?
Zuma has been evasive in explaining his ideological positions and policies to the public. He refuses to be interviewed about them by journalists, including the FM. He has, however, in the past month, given some insight into his thinking to the business community in various private meetings. These, together with public pronouncements during his rape trial and at various political rallies, and interviews with people close to him, have given us an image of the man.
That image is cause for concern.
Zuma appears miles away from the liberal moral philosophy that underpins our constitutional democracy. He is a social conservative. He has intimated that the press should project a positive image of the country, rather than criticise. He has said the death penalty should be revisited. His own behaviour and support for Zulu virginity testing poses significant concerns about his attitude to the rights of women. Other comments betray his homophobia.
There is certainly no reason to relax when it comes to economic policy. Though Zuma has tried to create the impression that "nothing will change", there is no good reason to believe this. Zuma's political career has been rescued and nourished by the Left. They will expect significant concessions from a Zuma presidency, including direct access to the levers of economic policy. Though he has said he will stick to ANC policy whatever his own views, these are weasel words - ANC policy gives room for latitude. Mbeki, too, has stuck within the ambit of party policy, but many find him far right of where they'd like him to be.
The Mbeki cabinet has been unable to get any concessions from labour to loosen up SA's labour legislation. Under Zuma, such proposals would be dead. Labour calls to reconsider the inflation-targeting basis for monetary policy will no doubt gain traction. Budget surpluses will become a distant memory, as will tax breaks. His social conservatism is matched by his fiscal profligacy.
It is difficult to imagine that this is a man, with no formal schooling behind him, who can confidently confront difficult and complex questions on his own feet. No doubt he will surround himself with advisers, but the problem is his closest adviser is Mo Shaik, brother to fraudster Schabir Shaik. He is now responsible for the Shaik family business which has been implicated in the arms deal investigation. Shaik has held one government position - head of the national intelligence co-ordinating body - but has never had a serious engagement with policy issues.
There is scant reason to think that Zuma will find birds of a different feather once he is in a position of power. And there may be slim pickings among those at the top of the ANC.
The party's rejection of Mbeki could extend to a rejection of those close to him when it comes to the election of the ANC's national executive committee.
Finance minister Trevor Manuel, public administration minister Geraldine Fraser Moleketi and other capable ministers could find themselves left out. Zuma's "business as usual" is unlikely, with big changes to the cabinet and further down in government.
Acceptance is not the right response. SA's first three administrations have developed a public morality based on a strong sense of justice and human rights. They built a prudent fiscal framework which still allowed for huge growth in welfare. Economic policy has given space, though it could do more, for the free market and capital to grow the economy. These are achievements the whole country has benefited from. They are achievements the ANC can take credit for, as can those key cabinet members who dedicated themselves to making at times unpopular choices. It is these men and women who should now not accept the threat that Zuma represents to those achievements.
