As Thabo Mbeki's term draws to a close, the chattering classes become ever more obsessed with his legacy. The situation in Zimbabwe, serious as it is, will probably be a footnote. It will sort itself out. His bizarre views on HIV/Aids have sowed death and confusion. That will doubtless take acres of space. Crime, too, which got out of hand on his watch, will receive some attention.
But it's the arms deal which will define Mbeki's presidency. It's the one constant throughout his tenure of office. It was with him from the beginning. It will be with him - and probably bury him - in the end.
The whole thing just doesn't make sense. It's devoid of all logic. It's unconscionable that a party supposedly dedicated to eradicating poverty (if that's possible!) could, in the face of such dire need, even contemplate spending billions of rand on worthless weapons. It boggles the mind.
It's now become a spider's web, if not a dung heap, entangling and tarnishing all it attracts. And it's certainly an albatross around the party's neck. Much of the tensions in the party can be traced to the arms deal. Mbeki's do-or-die battle with Jacob Zuma has its genesis in the arms deal. It's led to Mbeki's ham-handed attempts to stop Zuma's rise. He sacked Zuma - and rightly so - for allegedly accepting a bribe from one of the arms manufacturers.
But in the bigger scheme of things, Zuma's misdemeanour pales into insignificance. There are other much bigger fish which should have been harpooned. Mbeki, as chairman of the government task team which oversaw the buying of the weapons, must surely know of the millions, if not billions, of dollars which went into private pockets, especially those which greased Joe Modise's palm; or the conflict of interest which plagued Chippy Shaik, head of procurement, who seemed also to have been moonlighting for his brother Schabir, now cooling his heels in jail until Zuma, his puppet, ascends to the throne.
Mbeki should know about these shenanigans - and much more. It's inconceivable that a man of his intelligence could have presided over this rot without sniffing the stench. It beggars belief.
Conspiracy theories are fuelling Zuma's aspirations. These charges are meant to stop his inexorable rise to the top, they say. It's nonsense, of course. But they won't go away unless a thorough probe is conducted, and those implicated are brought to book.
Governments can't keep secrets - even with the best will in the world. The information scandal, which brought down apartheid strongman John Vorster, should provide a salutary lesson to our new rulers. Vorster died a broken man; and the scandal changed the course of SA's history.
Surprisingly, the current scandal has yet to catch fire. There's almost a reluctance or refusal to engage with the subject. Maybe the issue is simply too ghastly to contemplate; or maybe the lolly has ended up in too many pockets. It's been left to a few diehard peaceniks and those who lost out in the lottery to keep the scandal brewing.
But Zuma could be a headache for Mbeki. He knows where the bodies are buried. And he may turn the tables on Mbeki should he succeed in his quest for the top job.
But regardless of what happens in Polokwane, Mbeki should, for the sake of his own integrity and that of his government, sort out this mess before he leaves office. It's in his own interest that he should do so.
Otherwise history may adjudge him to have presided over a nest of vipers.
e-mail: fmeditor@fm.co.za
